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All In - De File
Does Collecting Make You Feel Dirty?
cbertsch
cbertsch
All In
As my partner the native San Franciscan pointed out to me this morning, now is the time that Giants fans have learned to dread, that moment when sweet release is so close and yet still far, far away. I have to say, though, that this season has felt different to me for a long time.

Like lots of the team's fans, I started following this season with an extra boost of interest after they brought up the rookie catcher Buster Posey. Then, as they added a series of cast-offs to the roster, most of who just seemed peculiarly right, and also brought up their highly touted pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner, I began to regard them as one of those greater-than-the-sum-of-the-parts deals. They had some bad slumps, sure. But they also had streaks in which they kept winning games that they shouldn't have.

The statistically minded will tell you that teams like that will eventually come back to earth. And the Giants probably will next year, unless they find a way to get more consistent and youthful hitting. But there have been plenty of cases of overachievers beating the odds for a decent stretch and this may well be one.

ESPN's Rob Neyer has been blogging about the postseason in a way that has raised the ire of many Giants fans, because he keeps insisting that the team's success against outwardly better teams is an aberration rather than writing Romantic paeans to its special qualities. He hasn't bothered me, for the most part. His account of the World Series's third game, though -- the first one which the Texas Rangers won -- did get under my skin a bit, because he seemed pleased that something had finally gone according to form. And his write-up of last night's contest rankled me considerably, since he appeared a little too eager to count the breaks the Giants had gotten instead of focusing on what they'd done well.

Still, I understand his plight. On paper, this Giants team has never looked capable of winning it all. And it could be the case that the gap between their performance and capabilities, at least in the arena of hitting, will catch up with them in the remainder of the World Series, with psychologically devastating consequences for their fans. Like my partner, I worry about that possibility. You know what, though? My deeply ingrained sports pessimism is getting harder and harder to sustain. I keep watching this charmingly dorky video, made just to celebrate the team's last-day-of-season making of the playoffs, because it captures the way I and so many others have come to feel about this team:

I'm sure that the original song's revival by Glee last year has contributed to my sense that it's more stirring than sappy. Not that Glee steers clear of kitsch, mind you. But I guess that the refusal to stop believing goes hand in hand with openness to sentiment that one would otherwise reject as naïve or manipulative. Given the way my 2010 has gone, however, and, more specifically, how trying the past month has been, I've already reached the point where staying "collected" is no longer possible. I've pushed off into the tide of sentiment and will just have to wait and see whether it washes me ashore in a good spot. In the interim, "Go Giants!"

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Comments
croneitude From: croneitude Date: November 1st, 2010 04:24 pm (UTC) (LINK TO SPECIFIC ENTRY)
Just make sure you bring your floaties. The tide of sentiment is unpredictable! But, a very fine place to be. :-)
wanderius_thrax From: wanderius_thrax Date: November 1st, 2010 07:13 pm (UTC) (LINK TO SPECIFIC ENTRY)
Here's my argument that the team that is overachieving in the playoffs is the rangers (up til now). I have no idea what the best statistically correlated power ranking is, But I do know this is a very solid one (and it's not even a power ranking per se). Here's what the regular season expected wins were for each team based on runs allowed vs. runs scored (see the X W-L stat on MLB.com):

1. Yankees (97), 2. Rays (96), 3. Phillies (95), 4. Giants (94), 5. Braves (93), 6. Twins (92), 7. tie between Reds (91), Padres (91), Rangers (91), Cardinals (91)......

According to that the giants could have been considered the 4th best team in baseball at the end of regular season play, and UNDERachievers by 2 games, since they only won 92 in reality. So the Giants are supposed to beat the rangers, they were supposed to beat the braves (as they did), and the fact that they beat the phillies was no real surprise-a 94 vs a 95 is nothing, that probably comes out to a 49%/51% deal, And then considering the phillies had the benefit of 3 extra home games during the regular season to help boost their run differential stats....

Remember in 2002 when the the giants and angels were both "weak" wild card teams, yet they made it to the world series? End of the regular season rs/ra expected wins stats had teams stacked up like this:

1. Angels 101
2. Red Sox 100
3. Yankees 99
4. Giants 98
5. A's 96...

So that stat hit the world series exacta. It predicted the Angels and Giants would go to the world series and that the Angels would win. It suggested that the teams should have been divisional winners, yet were not due to bad luck...
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