Charlie Bertsch (cbertsch) wrote,
Charlie Bertsch

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Hoping for Javier

I love reading things I don't fully understand:
Main change in the past couple of days is the idea that the upper
ridge, instead of breaking down entirely, will rebuild across
Sonora/Chihuahua as Hurricane Ivan moves up into the Gulf of Mexico
and causes the pattern to get a little blocky. The Heights will not
be particularly high, but it will tend to keep heights/thicknesses
steady-state and not allow short waves to dig very much. We'll see
how 12z runs look, but initial inclination through day 4 is to remove
much in the way of day-to-day high temperature change, while allowing
nighttime lows to sink a few degrees and zone variation to Widen as
dewpoints tail off. Only long-term concern is what epac Hurricane
Javier will do. The abovementioned ridge should be enough to prevent
a full recurvature. But the latest forecast track, if it verifies,
is nearly perfect for triggering a Gulf surge either Friday or Sat,
followed by the approach of a seasonably strong trough sun/Mon.
Since the models have had a difficult time with both the subtropical
ridge and incoming western U.S. Troughs in recent days, my
confidence is low in forecasting any significant cooling or precipitation.
However like my predecessor, i'm beginning to wonder if we'll
eventually need to insert pops, especially if the track of Javier
clouds over the southern end of the Gulf of California. We have plenty of
time to entertain that thought.
Meterology is a narrative medium, but the narrators rotate: "like my predecessor, I'm beginning to wonder. . ."

It's comforting to know that, "we have plenty of time to entertain that thought." If we keep turning it over in our minds, though, the cooling we desire might be offset by the heat of our desire.

Come on, Javier, follow that narrow band of hot surface temperatures up to Cabo. You can do it!

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